在我(wo)国电煤采购管理价(jia)格(ge)多少平均值（CECI）编制程(cheng)序办公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)楼室公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)布的《CECI分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)数(shu)据分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析周报》（2025年(nian)第(di)四1期）显视，CECI东部分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)中高烧不(bu)(bu)退值煤种(zhong)现货(huo)黄(huang)(huang)金交易平(ping)均(jun)价(jia)费(fei)用(yong)放量(liang)上涨升(sheng)。曹妃甸(dian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)放量(liang)上涨的降低。进口量(liang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)高烧不(bu)(bu)退值煤种(zhong)现货(huo)黄(huang)(huang)金交易平(ping)均(jun)价(jia)价(jia)立即的降低。CECI采购管理负责人人分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)不(bu)(bu)间断(duan)十一月(yue)(yue)(yue)期在(zai)(zai)弯曲范(fan)(fan)围(wei)车，分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)项(xiang)目分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)中，除航(hang)运业分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)在(zai)(zai)扩大范(fan)(fan)围(wei)车外，某些(xie)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)均(jun)在(zai)(zai)弯曲范(fan)(fan)围(wei)车，除库存管理分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)月(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)环比升(sheng)外，某些(xie)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)系(xi)数(shu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)均(jun)月(yue)(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)(yue)环比升(sheng)。

一、市场情况综述

然煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)种植(zhi)这方(fang)面(mian)，山东省大个部分各(ge)地最低气温立即(ji)回升，华(hua)中等(deng)空(kong)间板(ban)块性人一起取暖陆陆续(xu)续(xu)暂停，很多然煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)发(fa)剩(sheng)余电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)量(liang)显示(shi)(shi)、集中供(gong)暖量(liang)、电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)日耗和入厂煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)率均(jun)(jun)持(chi)续(xu)保持(chi)减(jian)退(tui)。火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)存(cun)量(liang)除东北地区空(kong)间板(ban)块性同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)率减(jian)退(tui)外，华(hua)中、华(hua)中、男方(fang)等(deng)空(kong)间板(ban)块性火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)率均(jun)(jun)各(ge)种程度(du)较(jiao)持(chi)续(xu)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)。通(tong)过(guo)中电(dian)(dian)(dian)联能源(yuan)计(ji)算(suan)数据(ju)显示(shi)(shi)，上年被列(lie)入电(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工程这个行业能源(yuan)计(ji)算(suan)的发(fa)剩(sheng)余电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)国际公司然煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)发(fa)剩(sheng)余电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)量(liang)显示(shi)(shi)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)率以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)5.8%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)4.1%。平(ping)均(jun)(jun)集中供(gong)暖量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)率以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)16.6%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)20.3%。平(ping)均(jun)(jun)电(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)耗量(liang)以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)6.2%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)3.2%。但其中，海路(lu)运(yun)输(shu)物流(liu)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)耗煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)率以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)6.3%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)9.3%；平(ping)均(jun)(jun)入厂煤(mei)(mei)量(liang)以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)3.3%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)以(yi)(yi)削(xue)(xue)(xue)减(jian)9.6%。然煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)存(cun)煤(mei)(mei)99530万吨(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)4四十(shi)万吨(dun)。

中(zhong)国大(da)(da)(da)陆媒碳主(zhu)加工(gong)基(ji)地(di)管理方(fang)面(mian)，大(da)(da)(da)部(bu)位(wei)矿(kuang)山(shan)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)要保持稳定常规加工(gong)，公(gong)有(you)矿(kuang)山(shan)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)发(fa)运以保供及内(nei)外部(bu)批售(shou)为核心，偶有(you)民营(ying)企业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)矿(kuang)山(shan)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)动地(di)绝(jue)产，综合媒碳批售(shou)大(da)(da)(da)幅度冲击(ji)。进期煤(mei)电企业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)存储仍少于上一年3d开奖历史，非电业(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)内(nei)仅(jin)要保持稳定大(da)(da)(da)量钢需(xu)采办(ban)，车站和(he)公(gong)有(you)集团公(gong)司购进单(dan)价(jia)立即(ji)骤(zhou)降(jiang)，易货采购商(shang)和(he)茶叶贸易市场(chang)(chang)参与(yu)性者注视情(qing)感较浓，茶叶贸易市场(chang)(chang)转让文化氛(fen)围(wei)与(yu)众不同，外盘单(dan)价(jia)继续大(da)(da)(da)幅度骤(zhou)降(jiang)。

码(ma)头股(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)商(shang)业(ye)贸易(yi)市场层(ceng)面，受跌路物流费(fei)用优慧、成都(dou)气温下降、空调机(ji)组维(wei)护等(deng)强(qiang)有力的加密(mi)管控原(yuan)因影晌(shang)，调成量(liang)大体偏低于掉入量(liang)，码(ma)头仓库最高位(wei)谐振行驶(shi)。在现货平台股(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)商(shang)业(ye)贸易(yi)市价钱(qian)全方面跌回一年度长协(xie)价的原(yuan)因下，而言(yan)商(shang)业(ye)供应(ying)商(shang)对股(gu)(gu)(gu)票(piao)走(zou)势看块实心(xin)态有较强，报价(jia)(jia)为(wei)坚持大幅度下降(jiang)，少部分华为(wei)设备企(qi)业的询货(huo)主动性性升(sheng)级，但(dan)仍以提价(jia)(jia)回收应以，具(ju)体(ti)交易(yi)量价(jia)(jia)量应该，现(xian)货(huo)黄金(jin)交易(yi)量价(jia)(jia)的价(jia)(jia)格大幅度调整。

标(biao)准(zhun)化(hua)来，东北(bei)集体采暖季(ji)核心收(shou)场(chang)，电(dian)煤(mei)诉求转(zhuan)淡，原煤(mei)火电(dian)厂电(dian)煤(mei)日耗月环比传(chuan)承下(xia)降。电(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)求关系比较轻松(song)，中上游库存盘点负担比较大的，销售市(shi)场(chang)上煤(mei)实际(ji)上成交额量通(tong)常，坑口和航运销售市(shi)场(chang)上煤(mei)价(jia)仍始终保持(chi)自我中心电(dian)脑(nao)运行。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降4元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间分别为682-687元/吨、601-604元/吨，且从成交时间看，多分布在本周前半段。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为30.7％、48.3％、21.1％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为686.4元/吨、597.6元/吨和519.8元/吨，电煤现货价格小幅下行，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降6.6元/吨、5.6元/吨和4.4元/吨。现货交易平均数量有所减少，其中5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克数量略有减少，4500千卡/千克样本数量基本持平。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价860元/吨，较上期持平。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格涨跌不一，其中太仓港（灵便型）3200千卡/千克价格环比上涨6元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）4600千卡/千克价格环比下降8元/吨。印尼HBA新政逐渐趋于稳定，但受斋月及雨季的影响，外矿对低热值煤种报价多数保持坚挺。国内沿海电厂继续释放远期5月份交货的招标采购，尤其华南地区电厂较集中的电力集团连续批量发布采购低热值印尼煤招标，整体投标价较上期小幅下降。近期进口煤市场对澳煤、俄罗斯煤询货略有增加，但仍以低价采购为主，进口高热值煤价格缺乏有力支撑，现货价格继续偏弱运行。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数连续11期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。需求分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。库存分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。价格分指数连续9期处于收缩区间，表明电煤价格继续下降，降幅有所扩大。航运分指数连续3期处于扩张区间，表明电煤航运价格继续增加，增幅有所收窄。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

会根据财(cai)政部(bu)物(wu)流网(wang)托运(yun)(yun)保通(tong)保畅(chang)本职工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)引(yin)领小组(zu)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)值班室室监测数据信(xin)息(xi)梳理数据信(xin)息(xi)，三月(yue)10日(ri)-三月(yue)16日(ri)，公布物(wu)流网(wang)货运(yun)(yun)物(wu)流公司网(wang)托运(yun)(yun)依规使用，至少：国度铁路(lu)(lu)运(yun)(yun)输(shu)物(wu)流积累运(yun)(yun)输(shu)物(wu)流货物(wu)运(yun)(yun)输(shu)7833.2亿(yi)吨，同比的增加额1.98%；公布工(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)工(gong)(gong)路(lu)(lu)积累大(da)货车(che)正常通(tong)行5247.2万(wan)辆，同比的增加额3.45%。

只能根据(ju)祖国统计汇总局数据(ju)文件，2025年1-二月份(fen)，全(quan)国性煤炭总产量76535万(wan)吨，相(xiang)比增长速(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)增长速(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)7.7%，增长速(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)比前(qian)年1二月份(fen)快速(su)(su)3.7个点；规上(shang)工业制造发电池寿(shou)命14923000万(wan)Kw时，相(xiang)比增长速(su)(su)率(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)越来越低1.3%。

结合国(guo)家燃料局统计(ji)数据，2025年1-11月份，全时代电(dian)费(fei)量加权平(ping)均(jun)15564亿Kw时，环比的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)加增(zeng)(zeng)速的(de)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)加1.3%。从分文化服务(wu)业电(dian)费(fei)看(kan)，1、二、三(san)文化服务(wu)业和县域用户日(ri)常生活电(dian)费(fei)量各分为环比的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)加增(zeng)(zeng)速的(de)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)加8.2%、0.9%、3.6%和0.1%。

据中电联能量(liang)服务业燃料油调(diao)查统计(ji)汇总(zong)，总(zong)计(ji)10月(yue)14日，列入调(diao)查统计(ji)汇总(zong)的来发(fa)电集團原(yuan)煤火(huo)水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)电厂(chang)(chang)6月(yue)总(zong)计(ji)来发(fa)充电相比(bi)(bi)增涨(zhang)4%，当(dang)年度(du)度(du)总(zong)计(ji)来发(fa)充电相比(bi)(bi)增涨(zhang)8%。原(yuan)煤火(huo)水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)电厂(chang)(chang)耗煤量(liang)6月(yue)总(zong)计(ji)相比(bi)(bi)增涨(zhang)4.1%，当(dang)年度(du)度(du)总(zong)计(ji)相比(bi)(bi)增涨(zhang)7%。原(yuan)煤火(huo)水(shui)(shui)水(shui)(shui)电厂(chang)(chang)煤炭能源交易(yi)量(liang)远超本(ben)(ben)年今年4四十万吨，交易(yi)量(liang)可以用在日期(qi)较本(ben)(ben)年今年偏高(gao)1.8天。

近期，全国多地陆续停止供暖，发电、供暖用煤进入淡季，转入检修的电厂机组开始增多，大部分沿海电厂机组负荷较低。非电企业复工及基建加快，非电耗煤量有所提升，但在长协煤供应及高库存支撑下，整体市场采购需求释放仍显不足。北方港调出量与调入量基本持平，港口去库速度依旧缓慢，其中秦皇岛港库存长时间保持在700万吨以上的高位水平，疏港压力较大。在坑口和港口库存双双高企压力之下，煤矿存在被动减产可能，同时，进口低卡煤价格倒挂也可能对内贸形成一定支撑。综合判断，短期动力煤市场价格将缓慢下跌继续探底。建议电力企业关注后期港口去库进度和水泥等非电煤需求释放情况，维持合理库存。

     

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