煤电(dian)同增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)牵动(dong)开业(ye)(ye)额(e)改变，目光储(chu)蓄能量(liang)及(ji)新(xin)健选煤厂，保(bao)(bao)证“定(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)”企业(ye)(ye)评分。子(zi)(zi)(zi)新(xin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)单位(wei)(wei)发(fa)布公告2023 年(nian)(nian)报(bao)表及(ji)2024 年(nian)(nian)二季报(bao)，2023 年(nian)(nian)子(zi)(zi)(zi)新(xin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)单位(wei)(wei)控(kong)制(zhi)开业(ye)(ye)使(shi)净营(ying)收(shou)301.2 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速-15.3%；控(kong)制(zhi)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)提(ti)成润22.7 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速+18.7%。这里面2023Q4 控(kong)制(zhi)开业(ye)(ye)使(shi)净营(ying)收(shou)81.4 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)+1.8%，控(kong)制(zhi)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)提(ti)成润6.4 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)+5.0%。2024Q1子(zi)(zi)(zi)新(xin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)单位(wei)(wei)控(kong)制(zhi)开业(ye)(ye)使(shi)净营(ying)收(shou)73.2 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速+3.6%，控(kong)制(zhi)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)提(ti)成润4.7 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速+11.4%。思考到2024 年(nian)(nian)有史以来市面 煤价下降，小编再降2024-2025 年(nian)(nian)投资收(shou)益(yi)预(yu)估(gu)并新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)的2026 年(nian)(nian)投资收(shou)益(yi)预(yu)估(gu)，预(yu)估(gu)2024-2026 年(nian)(nian)控(kong)制(zhi)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)提(ti)成润24.1/26.0/27.1 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)（2024-2025 节前数值(zhi)25.1/26.6 万亿(yi)(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)），环(huan)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为0.11/0.12/0.12 元(yuan)，匹配现阶段收(shou)盘价PE 为12.2/11.3/10.8 倍，子(zi)(zi)(zi)新(xin)子(zi)(zi)(zi)单位(wei)(wei)煤电(dian)相容(rong)销售摸式推助(zhu)开业(ye)(ye)额(e)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)(lv)(lv)、新(xin)健选煤厂构建表里，储(chu)蓄能量(liang)二次创业(ye)(ye)趋势值(zhi)不值(zhi)得遗憾，保(bao)(bao)证“定(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)”企业(ye)(ye)评分。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)市(shi)面(mian)(mian) 销售量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)依(yi)然减(jian)少，精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)市(shi)面(mian)(mian) 销售量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)开(kai) 为(wei)240/237 千(qian)万(wan)吨(dun)，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)(mei)(mei)市(shi)面(mian)(mian) 销售量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)开(kai) 为(wei)67/62 千(qian)万(wan)吨(dun)，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+8.6%/+7.4%。犹豫(yu)2024 年(nian)(nian)二第三(san)第一(yi)季(ji)度市(shi)面(mian)(mian) 煤(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)上(shang)行(xing)，2024Q1 大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)焦相关项目领域(yu)(yu)毛(mao)收(shou)入润(run)(run)率(lv)为(wei)12.3 万(wan)亿(yi)(yi)美金(jin)人民币(bi)，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-27.4%。大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)相关湖北(bei)亿(yi)(yi)华海则滩(tan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)业品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)属于(yu)湖北(bei)省(sheng)榆(yu)横大(da)(da)矿，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)种(zhong)主耍为(wei)好医药化工(gong)用(yong)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)及干劲煤(mei)(mei)(mei)，资(zi)源量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)储量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 千(qian)万(wan)吨(dun)，大(da)(da)概产生脂肪含量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)6500 大(da)(da)卡左(zuo)右。该品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)预(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)2026年(nian)(nian)三(san)第三(san)第一(yi)季(ji)度配(pei)备出煤(mei)(mei)(mei)力(li)，2027 年(nian)(nian)达(da)产。不同(tong)(tong)大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)推算出，按(an)2023 年(nian)(nian)市(shi)面(mian)(mian) 大(da)(da)概煤(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)教(jiao)学过程推算出可确保年(nian)(nian)开(kai)店薪(xin)资(zi)收(shou)入约90 万(wan)亿(yi)(yi)美金(jin)人民币(bi)、纯毛(mao)收(shou)入润(run)(run)约44 万(wan)亿(yi)(yi)美金(jin)人民币(bi)。能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)相关项目领域(yu)(yu)：2023 年(nian)(nian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)相关项目领域(yu)(yu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)升本减(jian)毛(mao)收(shou)入润(run)(run)率(lv)偏(pian)态减(jian)少，2024Q1 发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)显(xian)示依(yi)然高(gao)增(zeng)。2023 年(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)选取丹(dan)阳中鑫华海设定(ding)权，添加电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)安装(zhuang)系统电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)使用(yong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)20 心辰瓦(wa)，大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)用(yong)用(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)股份总(zong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)安装(zhuang)系统电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)使用(yong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)达(da)标(biao)918 心辰瓦(wa)、注资(zi)总(zong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)安装(zhuang)系统电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)使用(yong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)达(da)标(biao)400 心辰瓦(wa)。2023 年(nian)(nian)大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)起(qi)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)显(xian)示分(fen)开(kai) 为(wei)373.5/353.9 亿(yi)(yi)kW时(shi)，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)(nian)市(shi)面(mian)(mian) 煤(mei)(mei)(mei)价(jia)上(shang)行(xing)致使大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)费用(yong)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-11.2%，毛(mao)收(shou)入润(run)(run)率(lv)率(lv)增(zeng)大(da)(da)17.6 个(ge)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)至10.7%，纯利(li)润(run)(run)力(li)大(da)(da)面(mian)(mian)积的减(jian)少。2024Q1大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)起(qi)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)显(xian)示分(fen)开(kai) 为(wei)100.0/94.7 亿(yi)(yi)kW时(shi)，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+14.2%/14.2%，平(ping)台(tai)预(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)大(da)(da)有(you)限(xian)(xian)品(pin)(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)(pai)2024Q1 成绩同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)增(zeng)长(zhang)率(lv)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)减(jian)少主耍缘于(yu)起(qi)售电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)显(xian)示偏(pian)态升高(gao)。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

加快平面布置全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液流蓄(xu)微(wei)型(xing)蓄(xu)容(rong)量(liang)电池(chi)全(quan)(quan)行业(ye)链，集团(tuan)品牌全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液流微(wei)型(xing)蓄(xu)容(rong)量(liang)电池(chi)发(fa)展加快趴地(di)。（1）全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液流蓄(xu)微(wei)型(xing)蓄(xu)容(rong)量(liang)电池(chi)产(chan)品流程(cheng)设(she)(she)计(ji)：集团(tuan)品牌单位隶属张家港德泰全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液流微(wei)型(xing)蓄(xu)容(rong)量(liang)电池(chi)设(she)(she)备有限责任(ren)集团(tuan)品牌1,000MW 全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液流蓄(xu)微(wei)型(xing)蓄(xu)容(rong)量(liang)电池(chi)全(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液流微(wei)型(xing)蓄(xu)容(rong)量(liang)电池(chi)设(she)(she)备研发(fa)营地(di)（一次300MW）应于2023 年(nian)6 月底开(kai)工仪式设(she)(she)计(ji)，保守(shou)估计(ji)2024 年(nian)春天度建成投产(chan)，保守(shou)估计(ji)一次产(chan)品流程(cheng)达(da)产(chan)妇占目前我国股票市(shi)场占额10%。（2）钒(fan)(fan)矿选冶产(chan)出线设(she)(she)计(ji)：

总(zong)(zong)部(bu)所属单(dan)位敦煌市(shi)汇(hui)宏矿(kuang)业(ye)投资开发(fa)施工有现总(zong)(zong)部(bu)6000 吨/年(nian)高纯五脱色的二钒(fan)(fan)选冶生孩(hai)子线（新一期3000 吨/年(nian)）于2023 年(nian)6 月底进(jin)行开工施工，保守估(gu)计2024 年(nian)春天(tian)度(du)投入(ru)运营。截止(zhi)期到(dao)到(dao)目前为(wei)止(zhi)为(wei)止(zhi)，该产(chan)(chan)线是(shi)全(quan)国单(dan)条人数较大 、自动式化的程度(du)最(zui)大、学习(xi)环境最(zui)团结的石煤提钒(fan)(fan)生孩(hai)子线，达在产(chan)(chan)后将坐(zuo)拥全(quan)国石煤提钒(fan)(fan)20%差不(bu)多专业(ye)市(shi)场所有权(quan)。时(shi)候(hou)总(zong)(zong)部(bu)利(li)用债权(quan)品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)并购达成了广州省石台县(xian)龙岭钒(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)勘(kan)探权(quan)，上(shang)升了均匀吨度(du)0.93%、评审意见(jian)验收134.74万(wan)桶(tong)的五脱色的二钒(fan)(fan)产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)量，到(dao)到(dao)目前为(wei)止(zhi)为(wei)止(zhi)总(zong)(zong)部(bu)五脱色的二钒(fan)(fan)产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)量提高158.89 万(wan)桶(tong)。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。