2023年业绩同比预计大增，关注储能及新建煤矿，维持“增持”评级

工(gong)司上传202两(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)报电影预(yu)告(gao)，202两(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)构(gou)建(jian)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)(chun)利益(yi)(yi)22.3-23.3000万(wan)人(ren)民币，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)+16.8%-22.0%；构(gou)建(jian)扣非归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)(chun)利益(yi)(yi)22.8-23.8亿人(ren)民币，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)+37.0%-43.0%。单Q4而言(yan)，2023Q4构(gou)建(jian)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)(chun)利益(yi)(yi)6.1-7.5000万(wan)人(ren)民币，环比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)环比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)-0.8%-+15.5%，构(gou)建(jian)扣非后归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)(chun)利益(yi)(yi)6.6-7.3000万(wan)人(ren)民币，环比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)环比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)率增(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)+8.1%-24.4%。工(gong)司液压机预(yu)增(zeng)主因中国焦(jiao)炭(tan)金融产(chan)品产(chan)售(shou)量(liang)量(liang)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)不断增(zeng)加，供用电金融产(chan)品扭力煤购买成本费去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)减低，现(xian)阶(jie)段中国焦(jiao)炭(tan)价(jia)格(ge)始终处于对比(bi)(bi)上升楔形(xing)且(qie)波幅缩窄。我国稳定2023-2025年(nian)(nian)盈利推测，预(yu)计(ji)在2023-2025年(nian)(nian)构(gou)建(jian)归(gui)(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)(chun)利益(yi)(yi)23.0/25.1/26.3000万(wan)人(ren)民币，去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期(qi)(qi)+20.4%/+9.3%/+5.8%；EPS为0.10/0.11/0.1十元，表示(shi)现(xian)阶(jie)段股票(piao)市值PE为13.3/12.2/11.5倍，稳定“持股”评(ping)分。

煤炭产销增长叠加电力成本降低，业绩改善显著

中(zhong)国(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)煤(mei)炭(tan)能(neng)(neng)源的(de)(de)金融产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)部(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)门范(fan)(fan)(fan)围：我(wo)司(si)(si)202两(liang)(liang)年(nian)多(duo)(duo)中(zhong)国(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)煤(mei)炭(tan)能(neng)(neng)源的(de)(de)金融产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)部(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)门范(fan)(fan)(fan)围产(chan)(chan)生产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)显现成长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，里面(mian)前(qian)三年(nian)度(du)(du)煤(mei)质(zhi)产(chan)(chan)/生产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)为(wei)954/959十万(wan)吨，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+15.7%/+17.7%，不断4年(nian)度(du)(du)产(chan)(chan)生产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)与(yu)三年(nian)度(du)(du)发(fa)生变化不多(duo)(duo)。202两(liang)(liang)年(nian)多(duo)(duo)秦港(gang)5500大卡运转煤(mei)平(ping)最新(xin)房价为(wei)965元/吨，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)急剧走(zou)低24.0%；京(jing)唐港(gang)主焦煤(mei)（河北产(chan)(chan)）库定(ding)价平(ping)最新(xin)房价为(wei)2283元/吨，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)急剧走(zou)低19.6%。我(wo)司(si)(si)中(zhong)国(guo)中(zhong)国(guo)煤(mei)炭(tan)能(neng)(neng)源的(de)(de)金融产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)部(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)门范(fan)(fan)(fan)围产(chan)(chan)生产(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)持续上升相(xiang)(xiang)应(ying)状态上风险对(dui)冲(chong)了市面(mian)煤(mei)价下降导致(zhi)。能(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)金融产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)部(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)门范(fan)(fan)(fan)围：生产(chan)(chan)成本(ben)费领域，获益于煤(mei)价调整较多(duo)(duo)，我(wo)司(si)(si)发(fa)电站(zhan)生产(chan)(chan)成本(ben)费有很大程(cheng)度(du)(du)的(de)(de)影响(xiang)；量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)领域，我(wo)司(si)(si)首发(fa)剩余电量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)有所(suo)作为(wei)提升，前(qian)三年(nian)度(du)(du)我(wo)司(si)(si)共发(fa)/售(shou)电283/268亿度(du)(du)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+0.6%/+0.4%，里面(mian)Q3发(fa)/售(shou)电112/1015亿度(du)(du)，环比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)+35.1%/+35.2%；产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)报价领域，前(qian)三年(nian)度(du)(du)平(ping)衡工业用电476元/MW时(shi)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)环比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)+2.6%。202两(liang)(liang)年(nian)多(duo)(duo)我(wo)司(si)(si)能(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)题材股(gu)明星(xing)提升，我(wo)司(si)(si)带(dai)表10月起能(neng)(neng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)金融产(chan)(chan)品(pin)(pin)(pin)部(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)门范(fan)(fan)(fan)围慢慢实(shi)现盈利。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，其他储能项目同步拓展

1页面布局全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)瓶(ping)全(quan)(quan)(quan)品(pin)牌(pai)链，子司(si)(si)全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)技术(shu)企业(ye)(ye)转(zhuan)型1出台。（1）全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)瓶(ping)产(chan)品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)作(zuo)：6月27日(ri)五(wu)期(qi)(qi)300MW大余(yu)量(liang)全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)瓶(ping)分(fen)娩(mian)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)销售线开建(jian)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)作(zuo)，4月到位(wei)桩基过程，估计202多年(nian)(nian)下(xia)几年(nian)(nian)投建(jian)，其中的1MW试验(yan)装置分(fen)娩(mian)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)销售线已怎(zen)么安(an)装校准到位(wei)，估计五(wu)期(qi)(qi)产(chan)品(pin)达引(yin)生完孩子后的占国内贸易市(shi)场占有(you)率(lv)10%。再者策划沙(sha)洲(zhou)电(dian)量(liang)的使用2期(qi)(qi)30MW全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)瓶(ping)全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)技术(shu)輔助(zhu)调(diao)频示范讲(jiang)解产(chan)品(pin)，产(chan)品(pin)设计及全(quan)(quan)(quan)钒(fan)(fan)液(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)流(liu)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)电(dian)池(chi)(chi)技术(shu)程序(xu)主分(fen)娩(mian)设备招标公示业(ye)(ye)务已到位(wei)。（2）钒(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)选冶分(fen)娩(mian)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)销售线制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)作(zuo)：6月29日(ri)汇(hui)宏矿(kuang)业(ye)(ye)司(si)(si)五(wu)期(qi)(qi)3000吨/年(nian)(nian)高纯(chun)五(wu)腐蚀二钒(fan)(fan)选冶分(fen)娩(mian)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)销售线开建(jian)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)作(zuo)，估计202多年(nian)(nian)下(xia)几年(nian)(nian)投建(jian)，达引(yin)生完孩子后的占国内占有(you)率(lv)约20%。子司(si)(si)共策划制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)作(zuo)2×3000吨/年(nian)(nian)，会逐渐钒(fan)(fan)被会逐渐被开拓回(hui)收利用，子司(si)(si)钒(fan)(fan)矿(kuang)资原总价值展现。

海则滩建设加快，第五次高管增持落地彰显信心

海(hai)则(ze)滩(tan)矿(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)山品牌(pai)预(yu)期(qi)2026年出(chu)(chu)煤(mei)。工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂隶属(shu)关系河南亿(yi)华海(hai)则(ze)滩(tan)矿(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)山品牌(pai)是(shi)在河南省榆横大(da)矿(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)，煤(mei)种其主要为更质(zhi)量上(shang)(shang)乘(cheng)矿(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)业(ye)用(yong)(yong)煤(mei)及扭(niu)力煤(mei)，市(shi)場(chang)储量11.46亿(yi)吨，均(jun)发(fa)热怎么办量6500大(da)卡往上(shang)(shang)。截(jie)止(zhi)到2026年13月(yue)(yue)31日大(da)体工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)项(xiang)目进(jin)(jin)(jin)度工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)进(jin)(jin)(jin)度表(biao)比工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)进(jin)(jin)(jin)度表(biao)提起一(yi)位月(yue)(yue)，预(yu)期(qi)2026年具备着出(chu)(chu)煤(mei)程(cheng)度。该(gai)品牌(pai)电(dian)动车(che)续航(hang)到1000万(wan)吨左右/年更质(zhi)量上(shang)(shang)乘(cheng)矿(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)业(ye)用(yong)(yong)煤(mei)及扭(niu)力煤(mei)种植程(cheng)度，按近两年市(shi)場(chang)煤(mei)价(jia)核(he)算(suan)净(jing)销售(shou)收(shou)入(ru)率润约41万(wan)亿(yi)，按2026年市(shi)場(chang)均(jun)煤(mei)价(jia)核(he)算(suan)净(jing)销售(shou)收(shou)入(ru)率润约44万(wan)亿(yi)。领导层曾多次定增(zeng)展示出(chu)(chu)信(xin)任。2026年4月(yue)(yue)工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂公告模板本(ben)质(zhi)菅(jian)理(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)人员第(di)三步次定增(zeng)工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂股标工(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)进(jin)(jin)(jin)度表(biao)推进(jin)(jin)(jin)及时，此前合计数定增(zeng)0.09%，症状工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂菅(jian)理(li)层对工(gong)(gong)(gong)厂成长(zhang)的信(xin)任。

风险分析系统提示：煤价急跌(die)超预测；山西(xi)煤炭(tan)总产量敌(di)不过预测；全钒(fan)液流电(dian)池转型发(fa)展(zhan)敌(di)不过预测。

   

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